Udinese vs Genoa: BTTS Favored as Key Absences Shape Serie A Clash on Dec 8

By Sfiso Masuku    On 9 Dec, 2025    Comments (17)

Udinese vs Genoa: BTTS Favored as Key Absences Shape Serie A Clash on Dec 8

On Monday, December 8, 2025, at 17:00 UTC, Udinese Calcio and Genoa CFC meet in a Serie A fixture that could define their mid-season momentum. The match takes place at the Bluenergy Stadium — also known as Stadio Friuli — in Udine, Italy, where both teams bring contrasting forms, critical injuries, and a shared tendency to let goals fly in. What’s clear isn’t who will win — it’s that goals are coming. And likely, both sides will find the net.

Defensive Frailties and Offensive Urgency

Udinese’s home record reads like a cautionary tale: 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses in their last 10 matches at the Bluenergy Stadium. They average just 0.90 goals scored per game but surrender 1.70 — the kind of numbers that make fans clutch their seats in the 75th minute. Their attack, often sluggish and hesitant, struggles to turn pressure into chances, and late-game fatigue has cost them dearly this season. Then there’s the absence of Hassane Kamara, their most reliable central defender. Without him, Udinese’s transition from defense to midfield collapses. He wasn’t just a tackler; he was the anchor. His absence leaves gaps that Genoa’s attackers will smell like blood in the water.

Genoa, meanwhile, arrives with a 6-match unbeaten streak against Udinese — a psychological edge no statistic can replicate. Their away form is messy: 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses in their last 10 road games. But here’s the twist: they’ve scored in every single one of those 10 away matches. Their average of 1.40 goals per away game is above league average, and their Both Teams To Score rate in away fixtures? 80%. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern. Even without Maxwel Cornet, their top scorer in recent weeks, Genoa’s attack has depth — and hunger.

The Statistical Dance: Goals, Odds, and Patterns

The numbers don’t lie. According to thestatbible.com, 60% of Udinese’s home games this season have seen 3+ goals. For Genoa, it’s 80% in their away matches. Combine that with the fact that both teams have scored in 44% of their past head-to-head meetings — and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Footballpredictions.com highlights a ā€œBTTS Magnetā€ pattern: in Genoa’s last five away games, both teams scored every single time. Meanwhile, Udinese’s defensive structure, though shaky, has shown moments of discipline — limiting high-quality chances with an expected goals against (xGA) under 1.0 in recent stretches.

The betting markets reflect this tension. Footballpredictions.com forecasts a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, with Over 1.5 Goals and BTTS - Yes as top picks. EScored.com sees Genoa as the pick at 3.32 odds, citing their 1.50 goals per away match — 28% above the Serie A average. And Sportsgambler.com leans into the Asian Handicap, recommending Genoa +0.25 at -135 odds. Why? Because they believe Genoa won’t lose — even if they don’t win outright.

Who’s Missing, and Why It Matters

The injury to Hassane Kamara is a seismic blow. He wasn’t just a defender; he was the glue in Udinese’s counter-press. His absence means more space for Genoa’s wingers to exploit, and less stability when Udinese tries to build from the back. Genoa, though missing Maxwel Cornet, has shown they don’t need him. Their midfield trio — Stefano Sturaro, Francesco Pio Esposito, and Giorgio Scalvini — have combined for 7 goals in their last 8 matches. Cornet’s absence is a headline, but not a crisis.

The twist? Udinese scores late. They’ve netted 5 goals in the 76th minute or later this season — double Genoa’s late tally. But Genoa doesn’t fold. They’ve conceded late goals too — often because they push forward. That’s the danger: two teams that can’t shut it down, both chasing the same result, both willing to gamble.

What’s at Stake

This isn’t just another mid-table clash. Udinese sits just above the relegation zone, desperate for points to avoid the drop. Genoa, hovering around 10th, needs wins to climb into European contention. Neither team can afford a loss. And with both sides averaging over 1.4 goals per match — and conceding nearly as many — this isn’t a game of control. It’s a game of chaos.

The Serie A 2025-2026 Regular Season is tightening. Every point matters. And this match, with its overlapping patterns of scoring, defensive gaps, and psychological momentum, feels like a turning point.

What’s Next

If Genoa takes all three points, they’ll leapfrog into the top half of the table. If Udinese holds them to a draw, it could spark a revival. But the most likely scenario? A 2-2 thriller, with both teams celebrating late goals — and both fans left wondering what might have been.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Both Teams To Score (BTTS) so heavily favored in this match?

BTTS is favored because Udinese has seen BTTS in 60% of their home games, while Genoa has seen it in 80% of their away matches. Combined with Genoa’s 100% BTTS record in their last five away games and Udinese’s tendency to concede late, the odds of both teams scoring exceed 75% according to statistical models from thestatbible.com and footballpredictions.com.

How does the absence of Hassane Kamara affect Udinese’s chances?

Kamara’s absence weakens Udinese’s defensive structure and transitional play. He was their most consistent center-back, averaging 3.2 clearances and 2.1 interceptions per game. Without him, Genoa’s attacking midfielders — especially Scalvini and Esposito — will have more space to operate, increasing the likelihood of early goals.

Why do analysts disagree on the match outcome despite similar data?

Analysts differ because Udinese’s late scoring ability and Genoa’s unbeaten record against them create conflicting narratives. Footballpredictions.com prioritizes historical scoring patterns and favors a draw, while EScored.com and Sportsgambler.com emphasize Genoa’s away scoring rate and betting market value, leading them to back Genoa despite the risk.

Is the 17:00 UTC kickoff time confirmed?

Yes, multiple authoritative sources including footballpredictions.com and escored.com confirm the 17:00 UTC kickoff. Sportsgambler.com incorrectly listed 12:00 UTC, which appears to be a time zone error. The official fixture time aligns with Serie A’s standard Monday evening slot for mid-table clashes.

What’s the best betting value according to experts?

Experts agree that BTTS - Yes and Over 1.5 Goals are the safest bets. Footballpredictions.com rates them at 69% and 44% historical probability, respectively. For higher risk/reward, Genoa +0.25 Asian Handicap at -135 offers value, as it covers both a draw and a Genoa win — which aligns with their 6-match unbeaten streak against Udinese.

Could this match end in a 0-0 draw?

Highly unlikely. Neither team has played a 0-0 home or away match this season. Udinese’s last clean sheet was in September, and Genoa hasn’t kept a clean sheet on the road since October. Their attacking intent and defensive gaps make a goalless draw statistically improbable — less than 5% chance according to Forebet.com’s model.

17 Comments

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    Serena May

    December 11, 2025 AT 04:00
    BTTS is literally guaranteed. šŸ˜ Both teams play like they're trying to lose a bet, not win a game.
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    Crystal ZƔrifa

    December 12, 2025 AT 10:31
    I mean... we all knew this was gonna be a mess. Like, two teams that can’t defend but somehow always find a way to score. It’s poetry. Sad, chaotic poetry.
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    Jason Davis

    December 12, 2025 AT 20:29
    Udinese missing Kamara is like taking the brakes off a shopping cart downhill. Genoa’s gonna roll right through. And honestly? I’m here for it.
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    ryan pereyra

    December 14, 2025 AT 20:27
    The xGA metrics are misleading. You can’t quantify chaos with a spreadsheet. This isn’t football-it’s a performance art piece titled 'The Futility of Defensive Structure'.
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    Sarah Day

    December 16, 2025 AT 04:34
    I just hope someone scores a bicycle kick. That’s all I’m asking for.
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    James Otundo

    December 17, 2025 AT 17:27
    You guys are acting like this is some deep tactical battle. Nah. It’s two teams with zero defensive discipline and a mutual agreement to let each other score. It’s beautiful.
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    Cheryl Jonah

    December 18, 2025 AT 01:45
    Wait… did you know the stadium’s name is 'Bluenergy'? That’s not real. This whole thing is a deep state operation to distract us from the real match: the moon landing cover-up.
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    Jane Roams Free

    December 19, 2025 AT 01:38
    I’m just glad we’re talking about football like it matters. Even if it’s a mess, it’s *our* mess. Keep showing up, even when the defense looks like a broken accordion.
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    Anthony Watkins

    December 20, 2025 AT 21:57
    USA could’ve won this match if they had a team like this. Genoa? They’re just lucky the Italian league lets them play like this. šŸ˜’
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    Bryan Kam

    December 22, 2025 AT 08:27
    The 1-1 draw prediction is cute. But it’s gonna be 2-2. And someone’s gonna score in the 89th. Just watch.
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    Cheri Gray

    December 23, 2025 AT 10:12
    i think genoa will win but i also think udinese will score like 3 goals and then someone will get a red card and then the ref will get hit by a drone. šŸ¤·ā€ā™€ļø
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    Andrea Hierman

    December 24, 2025 AT 18:59
    One must contemplate the metaphysical implications of a match wherein both parties, in their mutual vulnerability, become co-authors of a shared narrative of existential futility. The ball, in this context, is not merely a sphere-it is a mirror.
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    Danny Johnson

    December 25, 2025 AT 15:18
    I know it’s gonna be wild, but I’m rooting for both teams. Just go out there, play your hearts out, and don’t worry about the table. That’s what football’s really about.
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    Christine Dick

    December 25, 2025 AT 23:39
    This is why we can’t have nice things. Two teams, both incapable of basic defensive organization, and now we’re all just… accepting it? Where is the accountability? The discipline? The *moral compass*?
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    Jullien Marie Plantinos

    December 27, 2025 AT 04:03
    Genoa? Please. They’re just lucky Udinese is this bad. If this was the Premier League, they’d be getting roasted daily. This is why Italian football is dying.
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    Sandeep YADUVANSHI

    December 29, 2025 AT 01:24
    The xG models are all wrong. You can’t predict passion. Udinese have heart. Genoa have hunger. This isn’t numbers-it’s soul.
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    Vikram S

    December 29, 2025 AT 16:49
    Serie A is a joke. Even the stats are fake. I’ve seen better football in Mumbai slums. This is why India needs to start its own league.

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