Udinese vs Genoa: BTTS Favored as Key Absences Shape Serie A Clash on Dec 8

On Monday, December 8, 2025, at 17:00 UTC, Udinese Calcio and Genoa CFC meet in a Serie A fixture that could define their mid-season momentum. The match takes place at the Bluenergy Stadium — also known as Stadio Friuli — in Udine, Italy, where both teams bring contrasting forms, critical injuries, and a shared tendency to let goals fly in. What’s clear isn’t who will win — it’s that goals are coming. And likely, both sides will find the net.

Defensive Frailties and Offensive Urgency

Udinese’s home record reads like a cautionary tale: 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses in their last 10 matches at the Bluenergy Stadium. They average just 0.90 goals scored per game but surrender 1.70 — the kind of numbers that make fans clutch their seats in the 75th minute. Their attack, often sluggish and hesitant, struggles to turn pressure into chances, and late-game fatigue has cost them dearly this season. Then there’s the absence of Hassane Kamara, their most reliable central defender. Without him, Udinese’s transition from defense to midfield collapses. He wasn’t just a tackler; he was the anchor. His absence leaves gaps that Genoa’s attackers will smell like blood in the water.

Genoa, meanwhile, arrives with a 6-match unbeaten streak against Udinese — a psychological edge no statistic can replicate. Their away form is messy: 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses in their last 10 road games. But here’s the twist: they’ve scored in every single one of those 10 away matches. Their average of 1.40 goals per away game is above league average, and their Both Teams To Score rate in away fixtures? 80%. That’s not luck. That’s a pattern. Even without Maxwel Cornet, their top scorer in recent weeks, Genoa’s attack has depth — and hunger.

The Statistical Dance: Goals, Odds, and Patterns

The numbers don’t lie. According to thestatbible.com, 60% of Udinese’s home games this season have seen 3+ goals. For Genoa, it’s 80% in their away matches. Combine that with the fact that both teams have scored in 44% of their past head-to-head meetings — and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Footballpredictions.com highlights a “BTTS Magnet” pattern: in Genoa’s last five away games, both teams scored every single time. Meanwhile, Udinese’s defensive structure, though shaky, has shown moments of discipline — limiting high-quality chances with an expected goals against (xGA) under 1.0 in recent stretches.

The betting markets reflect this tension. Footballpredictions.com forecasts a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, with Over 1.5 Goals and BTTS - Yes as top picks. EScored.com sees Genoa as the pick at 3.32 odds, citing their 1.50 goals per away match — 28% above the Serie A average. And Sportsgambler.com leans into the Asian Handicap, recommending Genoa +0.25 at -135 odds. Why? Because they believe Genoa won’t lose — even if they don’t win outright.

Who’s Missing, and Why It Matters

The injury to Hassane Kamara is a seismic blow. He wasn’t just a defender; he was the glue in Udinese’s counter-press. His absence means more space for Genoa’s wingers to exploit, and less stability when Udinese tries to build from the back. Genoa, though missing Maxwel Cornet, has shown they don’t need him. Their midfield trio — Stefano Sturaro, Francesco Pio Esposito, and Giorgio Scalvini — have combined for 7 goals in their last 8 matches. Cornet’s absence is a headline, but not a crisis.

The twist? Udinese scores late. They’ve netted 5 goals in the 76th minute or later this season — double Genoa’s late tally. But Genoa doesn’t fold. They’ve conceded late goals too — often because they push forward. That’s the danger: two teams that can’t shut it down, both chasing the same result, both willing to gamble.

What’s at Stake

This isn’t just another mid-table clash. Udinese sits just above the relegation zone, desperate for points to avoid the drop. Genoa, hovering around 10th, needs wins to climb into European contention. Neither team can afford a loss. And with both sides averaging over 1.4 goals per match — and conceding nearly as many — this isn’t a game of control. It’s a game of chaos.

The Serie A 2025-2026 Regular Season is tightening. Every point matters. And this match, with its overlapping patterns of scoring, defensive gaps, and psychological momentum, feels like a turning point.

What’s Next

If Genoa takes all three points, they’ll leapfrog into the top half of the table. If Udinese holds them to a draw, it could spark a revival. But the most likely scenario? A 2-2 thriller, with both teams celebrating late goals — and both fans left wondering what might have been.