When Aliko Dangote, Chairman of Dangote Group visited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Abuja last week, he hailed the administration’s sweeping oil sector reforms.
The meeting, held on 15 May 2025 at the Presidential Villa, centered on recent changes at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPC). Dangote praised the appointment of Bashir Ojulari as Group Chief Executive Officer, calling it a "revolutionary shift" that could finally break the log‑jam that has hamstrung Nigeria’s energy ambitions for years.
Background: Tinubu’s Oil‑Sector Overhaul
Since taking office in May 2023, President Tinubu has pushed a series of structural adjustments aimed at boosting transparency and attracting foreign investment. The core of the plan includes revamping NNPC’s governance, tightening oversight of downstream marketers, and renegotiating joint‑venture contracts with multinational oil firms.
Analysts note that the reforms mirror a broader “Nigeria First” narrative, where the government seeks to turn the country’s oil wealth into a sustainable development engine rather than a source of patronage.
Dangote’s Clarifications and New Leadership Praise
During the media briefing that followed the presidential meeting, Dangote fielded questions about a prior comment in which he said he was “still fighting for the survival of my $20 billion refinery.” He clarified that the fight was aimed at entrenched oil marketers and traders – the so‑called “cabals” that have historically obstructed policy implementation – not at the fresh NNPC leadership.
"The new team at NNPC has been nothing short of supportive," he said. "Their focus on transparency and accountability aligns perfectly with what we need for the refinery to operate at full capacity."
PENGASSAN Standoff and Presidential Intervention
In a separate episode on 6 October 2025, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) threatened industrial action that could have crippled Dangote’s refining operations. The union cited grievances over wage adjustments and safety standards.
President Tinubu, through his Minister of Petroleum Resources, stepped in and brokered an agreement that averted what Dangote described as “potential sabotage.” The refinery issued a statement thanking the president for “restoring order at a critical moment,” underscoring the administration’s willingness to intervene decisively when sector stability is at stake.
Early Impact: Rigs, Production Targets and Market Signals
Data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows a striking uptick in Nigeria’s drilling activity. The country operated 15 rigs in August 2025, up from just nine in May 2025 – a 66 % increase in less than four months.
Under Ojulari’s stewardship, NNPC has set an ambitious target of reaching 1.8 million barrels of oil per day by the end of 2025, a significant hike from the 1.3 million barrels recorded at the start of the year. If achieved, the output boost could add roughly $12 billion in export revenues, reshaping the nation’s balance of payments.
Industry observers say the surge in rig count reflects renewed confidence among local and international service companies, many of whom have cited clearer licensing procedures and faster permit approvals as key incentives.
Expert Views and Future Outlook
Energy economist Dr. Amina Yusuf of the University of Lagos warns that while the reforms are promising, “sustaining this momentum will require consistent policy enforcement and protection of investors from political volatility.”
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that Nigeria’s projected production climb could help the OPEC+ group meet its collective output commitments, easing price pressures in global markets.
For the Dangote Group, the outlook appears optimistic. The refinery’s management says the plant is on track to achieve 650,000 metric tonnes of refined products per month by the third quarter of 2025, a capacity that could dramatically reduce the nation’s reliance on imported gasoline.
All eyes are now on the upcoming November 2025 review of NNPC’s performance, where Tinubu’s administration will likely gauge whether the new leadership can meet the production milestones and maintain the improved governance standards.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do the oil‑sector reforms affect local businesses?
The reforms streamline licensing and reduce bureaucratic delays, allowing local service firms to secure contracts faster. Since May 2025, at least 12 Nigerian drilling companies have reported a 30 % reduction in permit processing time, boosting their competitiveness against foreign firms.
What was the role of President Tinubu in the PENGASSAN dispute?
Tinubu’s office acted as a mediator, convening senior officials from the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and representatives of Dangote Refinery. The intervention led to a settlement on wage adjustments and safety commitments, preventing a shutdown that could have halted up to 200,000 barrels of daily output.
Why did Dangote emphasize the new NNPC leadership?
Dangote highlighted the leadership change because Bashir Ojulari’s team has already shown support for the refinery’s feedstock needs, facilitating smoother supply contracts. This backing is crucial for the $20 billion plant to meet its planned production levels.
What are the projected oil‑production numbers for 2025?
NNPC aims to lift output to 1.8 million barrels per day by December 2025, up from roughly 1.3 million barrels in January. If achieved, the increase would represent a 38 % rise year‑over‑year, adding an estimated $12 billion in export earnings.
What challenges could jeopardize these reforms?
Experts warn that lingering corruption, fluctuating global oil prices, and potential political shifts ahead of the 2027 elections could undermine progress. Consistent enforcement of new policies will be essential to maintain investor confidence.
Neha Shetty
October 7, 2025 AT 03:42It's encouraging to see Dangote acknowledging the new NNPC leadership. The reforms could finally untangle the bureaucratic knots that have slowed down refinery feedstock. Transparency and accountability are the right vibes for attracting investment. If the government keeps this momentum, the oil sector might see sustainable growth. Let's hope the ambitious production targets are realistic.
Apu Mistry
October 12, 2025 AT 22:35i think the whole thing is a bit overhyped i mean the new boss could be a game changer but we all know politics can be messy. dangote was just doing the PR round anyway. still, any sign of change is welcome though… maybe.
Rajnish Swaroop Azad
October 18, 2025 AT 17:29Dangote shouting about reforms feels like a drama scene. New NNPC team, new hope.
bhavna bhedi
October 24, 2025 AT 12:22The optimism is palpable yet the formal tone seems misplaced it feels like a celebration of a new chapter. We see the numbers climbing and the rigs on the rise, which is great. Still, let’s keep an eye on the real impact on the ground.